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Racing FC Union Luxembourg vs Marisca Mersch — National Division 2018

Racing FC Union Luxembourg
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Marisca Mersch
Marisca Mersch
3/3/2024National DivisionNational Division · Round 19Stade Achille Hammerel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Racing FC Union Luxembourg52%
×Draw23%
Marisca Mersch25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.88
Marisca Mersch
1.23

Racing FC Union Luxembourg creates 53% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 15 away

creates per match

Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.64
Marisca Mersch
1.07

allows per match

Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.38
Marisca Mersch
2.13

finishing

Racing FC Union Luxembourg+0.00on par
Marisca Mersch+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing FC Union Luxembourg ↓

Marisca Mersch →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Racing FC Union Luxembourg or draw
75%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg or Marisca Mersch
77%
Draw or Marisca Mersch
48%

Winning margin

Racing FC Union Luxembourg wins by 2+
30%
Marisca Mersch wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Racing FC Union Luxembourg 1+ goals
85%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg 2+ goals
56%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg 3+ goals
29%
Marisca Mersch 1+ goals
71%
Marisca Mersch 2+ goals
35%
Marisca Mersch 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Racing FC Union Luxembourg (draw refunded)
68%
Marisca Mersch (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing FC Union Luxembourg at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.38 · 112 matches

Marisca Mersch away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing FC Union Luxembourg attack 1.64 + Marisca Mersch defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.88

Marisca Mersch attack 1.07 + Racing FC Union Luxembourg defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Racing FC Union Luxembourg scores more
52%
level
23%
Marisca Mersch scores more
25%

Racing FC Union Luxembourg at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Racing FC Union Luxembourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Racing FC Union Luxembourg vs Marisca Mersch

Racing FC Union Luxembourg beat Marisca Mersch 4-1 in National Division on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Achille Hammerel in Luxembourg.