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Marisca Mersch vs Racing FC Union Luxembourg — National Division 2018

Marisca Mersch
Marisca Mersch
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
9/3/2023National DivisionNational Division · Round 5Stade Schintgespesch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Marisca Mersch32%
×Draw23%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marisca Mersch
1.48
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.81

Racing FC Union Luxembourg creates 22% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 111 away

creates per match

Marisca Mersch
1.60
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.62

allows per match

Marisca Mersch
2.00
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.35

finishing

Marisca Mersch+0.00on par
Racing FC Union Luxembourg+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marisca Mersch ↓

Racing FC Union Luxembourg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Marisca Mersch or draw
55%
Marisca Mersch or Racing FC Union Luxembourg
77%
Draw or Racing FC Union Luxembourg
68%

Winning margin

Marisca Mersch wins by 2+
15%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Marisca Mersch 1+ goals
77%
Marisca Mersch 2+ goals
43%
Marisca Mersch 3+ goals
19%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg 1+ goals
84%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg 2+ goals
54%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Marisca Mersch (draw refunded)
41%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marisca Mersch at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

Racing FC Union Luxembourg away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.35 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marisca Mersch attack 1.60 + Racing FC Union Luxembourg defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.48

Racing FC Union Luxembourg attack 1.62 + Marisca Mersch defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Marisca Mersch scores more
32%
level
23%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg scores more
45%

Racing FC Union Luxembourg at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Racing FC Union Luxembourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marisca Mersch vs Racing FC Union Luxembourg

Marisca Mersch and Racing FC Union Luxembourg drew 2-2 in National Division on September 3, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Schintgespesch in Mersch.