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Racing FC Union Luxembourg vs Blue Boys Muhlenbach — National Division 2018

Racing FC Union Luxembourg
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
CANC
00:00
Blue Boys Muhlenbach
Blue Boys Muhlenbach
5/10/2020National DivisionNational Division · Round 25Stade Achille Hammerel (Lëtzebuerg (Luxembourg))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Racing FC Union Luxembourg59%
×Draw20%
Blue Boys Muhlenbach21%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing FC Union Luxembourg
2.20
Blue Boys Muhlenbach
1.25

Racing FC Union Luxembourg creates 76% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 8 away

creates per match

Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.65
Blue Boys Muhlenbach
1.13

allows per match

Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.38
Blue Boys Muhlenbach
2.75

finishing

Racing FC Union Luxembourg+0.00on par
Blue Boys Muhlenbach+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing FC Union Luxembourg ↓

Blue Boys Muhlenbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Racing FC Union Luxembourg or draw
79%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg or Blue Boys Muhlenbach
80%
Draw or Blue Boys Muhlenbach
41%

Winning margin

Racing FC Union Luxembourg wins by 2+
36%
Blue Boys Muhlenbach wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Racing FC Union Luxembourg 1+ goals
89%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg 2+ goals
64%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg 3+ goals
37%
Blue Boys Muhlenbach 1+ goals
71%
Blue Boys Muhlenbach 2+ goals
36%
Blue Boys Muhlenbach 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Racing FC Union Luxembourg (draw refunded)
74%
Blue Boys Muhlenbach (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing FC Union Luxembourg at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.38 · 111 matches

Blue Boys Muhlenbach away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing FC Union Luxembourg attack 1.65 + Blue Boys Muhlenbach defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.20

Blue Boys Muhlenbach attack 1.13 + Racing FC Union Luxembourg defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Racing FC Union Luxembourg scores more
59%
level
20%
Blue Boys Muhlenbach scores more
21%

Racing FC Union Luxembourg at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Racing FC Union Luxembourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Racing FC Union Luxembourg vs Blue Boys Muhlenbach — Match Preview

Racing FC Union Luxembourg face Blue Boys Muhlenbach on May 10, 2020 in this National Division fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Racing FC Union Luxembourg host Blue Boys Muhlenbach at Stade Achille Hammerel (Lëtzebuerg (Luxembourg)).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.