Blue Boys Muhlenbach 2–2 Racing FC Union Luxembourg

Blue Boys Muhlenbach

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Racing FC Union Luxembourg

A. Mahamat 89'

T. Makonda 44'

Y. Mabella 29'

K. Nakache 28'

2/16/2020

National Division · Round 13Stade Mathias Mamer (Luxembourg)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Blue Boys Muhlenbach31%

×Draw24%

Racing FC Union Luxembourg45%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Blue Boys MuhlenbachExpected goals in this matchRacing FC Union Luxembourg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.68

Blue Boys Muhlenbach

1.36

Racing FC Union Luxembourg

1.68

Racing FC Union Luxembourg creates 24% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 110 away

1.38

creates per match

1.61

1.75

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Blue Boys Muhlenbach

1.38

Racing FC Union Luxembourg

1.61

allows per match

Blue Boys Muhlenbach

1.75

Racing FC Union Luxembourg

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blue Boys Muhlenbach+0.00on par

Racing FC Union Luxembourg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blue Boys Muhlenbach ↓

Racing FC Union Luxembourg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Blue Boys Muhlenbach or draw

55%

Blue Boys Muhlenbach or Racing FC Union Luxembourg

76%

Draw or Racing FC Union Luxembourg

69%

Winning margin

Blue Boys Muhlenbach wins by 2+

14%

Racing FC Union Luxembourg wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Blue Boys Muhlenbach 1+ goals

74%

Blue Boys Muhlenbach 2+ goals

39%

Blue Boys Muhlenbach 3+ goals

16%

Racing FC Union Luxembourg 1+ goals

81%

Racing FC Union Luxembourg 2+ goals

50%

Racing FC Union Luxembourg 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Blue Boys Muhlenbach (draw refunded)

41%

Racing FC Union Luxembourg (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blue Boys Muhlenbach at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Racing FC Union Luxembourg away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.35 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blue Boys Muhlenbach attack 1.38 + Racing FC Union Luxembourg defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.36

Racing FC Union Luxembourg attack 1.61 + Blue Boys Muhlenbach defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Blue Boys Muhlenbach scores more

31%

level

24%

Racing FC Union Luxembourg scores more

45%

Racing FC Union Luxembourg at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Racing FC Union Luxembourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

K. Nakache

29'

Y. Mabella

44'

T. Makonda

65'

Vitor Almeida← J. Hodzic

76'

F. Ikene← J. Simon

78'

Munir Dragulovcanin← S. Dzanic

86'

Y. Bouche← L. Tinelli

89'

A. Mahamat

90+1'

F. Sabotic← A. Rani

Blue

Racing

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: F. Buyse

65'▲Vitor Almeida←▼J. Hodzic

78'▲Munir Dragulovcanin←▼S. Dzanic

90+1'▲F. Sabotic←▼A. Rani

Blue Boys Muhlenbach substitutes

AlmeidaDragulovcaninSabotic

Manager: R. Brouard

76'▲F. Ikene←▼J. Simon

86'▲Y. Bouche←▼L. Tinelli

Racing FC Union Luxembourg substitutes

IkeneBouche

National Division: Blue Boys Muhlenbach 2–2 Racing FC Union Luxembourg

Blue Boys Muhlenbach and Racing FC Union Luxembourg drew 2-2 in National Division on February 16, 2020.

Goals: K. Nakache (28'), Y. Mabella (29'), T. Makonda (44'), A. Mahamat (89').

The match was played at Stade Mathias Mamer (Luxembourg).

Blue Boys Muhlenbach vs Racing FC Union Luxembourg — National Division 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

National Division: Blue Boys Muhlenbach 2–2 Racing FC Union Luxembourg