Racing FC Union Luxembourg 2–0 AS Jeunesse Esch

Racing FC Union Luxembourg

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

AS Jeunesse Esch

4/27/2025

National Division · Round 26Stade Achille Hammerel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Racing FC Union Luxembourg42%

×Draw25%

AS Jeunesse Esch33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing FC Union LuxembourgExpected goals in this matchAS Jeunesse Esch

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.34

Racing FC Union Luxembourg

1.54

AS Jeunesse Esch

1.34

Racing FC Union Luxembourg creates 15% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 111 away

1.64

creates per match

1.31

1.38

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Racing FC Union Luxembourg

1.64

AS Jeunesse Esch

1.31

allows per match

Racing FC Union Luxembourg

1.38

AS Jeunesse Esch

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing FC Union Luxembourg+0.00on par

AS Jeunesse Esch+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing FC Union Luxembourg ↓

AS Jeunesse Esch →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Racing FC Union Luxembourg or draw

67%

Racing FC Union Luxembourg or AS Jeunesse Esch

75%

Draw or AS Jeunesse Esch

58%

Winning margin

Racing FC Union Luxembourg wins by 2+

21%

AS Jeunesse Esch wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Racing FC Union Luxembourg 1+ goals

79%

Racing FC Union Luxembourg 2+ goals

45%

Racing FC Union Luxembourg 3+ goals

20%

AS Jeunesse Esch 1+ goals

74%

AS Jeunesse Esch 2+ goals

39%

AS Jeunesse Esch 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Racing FC Union Luxembourg (draw refunded)

56%

AS Jeunesse Esch (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing FC Union Luxembourg at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.38 · 112 matches

AS Jeunesse Esch away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.45 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing FC Union Luxembourg attack 1.64 + AS Jeunesse Esch defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.54

AS Jeunesse Esch attack 1.31 + Racing FC Union Luxembourg defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Racing FC Union Luxembourg scores more

42%

level

25%

AS Jeunesse Esch scores more

33%

Racing FC Union Luxembourg at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Racing FC Union Luxembourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff