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AS Jeunesse Esch vs Racing FC Union Luxembourg — National Division 2018

AS Jeunesse Esch
AS Jeunesse Esch
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
2/24/2024National DivisionNational Division · Round 18Stade de la Frontière

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

AS Jeunesse Esch39%
×Draw25%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Jeunesse Esch
1.49
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 112 home / 111 away

creates per match

AS Jeunesse Esch
1.62
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.62

allows per match

AS Jeunesse Esch
1.23
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.35

finishing

AS Jeunesse Esch+0.00on par
Racing FC Union Luxembourg+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Jeunesse Esch ↓

Racing FC Union Luxembourg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

AS Jeunesse Esch or draw
64%
AS Jeunesse Esch or Racing FC Union Luxembourg
75%
Draw or Racing FC Union Luxembourg
61%

Winning margin

AS Jeunesse Esch wins by 2+
19%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

AS Jeunesse Esch 1+ goals
77%
AS Jeunesse Esch 2+ goals
44%
AS Jeunesse Esch 3+ goals
19%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg 1+ goals
76%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg 2+ goals
42%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

AS Jeunesse Esch (draw refunded)
52%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Jeunesse Esch at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.23 · 112 matches

Racing FC Union Luxembourg away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.35 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Jeunesse Esch attack 1.62 + Racing FC Union Luxembourg defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.49

Racing FC Union Luxembourg attack 1.62 + AS Jeunesse Esch defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

AS Jeunesse Esch scores more
39%
level
25%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg scores more
36%

AS Jeunesse Esch at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "AS Jeunesse Esch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AS Jeunesse Esch vs Racing FC Union Luxembourg

AS Jeunesse Esch beat Racing FC Union Luxembourg 3-0 in National Division on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de la Frontière in Esch-sur-Alzette.