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Racing de Casablanca vs Olympique Dcheïra — Botola 2 2025

Racing de Casablanca
Racing de Casablanca
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Olympique Dcheïra
Olympique Dcheïra
11/5/2023Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 9Stade Père-Jégo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Racing de Casablanca38%
×Draw29%
Olympique Dcheïra34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing de Casablanca
1.15
Olympique Dcheïra
1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 121 home / 105 away

creates per match

Racing de Casablanca
1.13
Olympique Dcheïra
1.13

allows per match

Racing de Casablanca
1.01
Olympique Dcheïra
1.17

finishing

Racing de Casablanca+0.00on par
Olympique Dcheïra+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing de Casablanca ↓

Olympique Dcheïra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Racing de Casablanca or draw
66%
Racing de Casablanca or Olympique Dcheïra
71%
Draw or Olympique Dcheïra
62%

Winning margin

Racing de Casablanca wins by 2+
16%
Olympique Dcheïra wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Racing de Casablanca 1+ goals
68%
Racing de Casablanca 2+ goals
32%
Racing de Casablanca 3+ goals
11%
Olympique Dcheïra 1+ goals
66%
Olympique Dcheïra 2+ goals
29%
Olympique Dcheïra 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Racing de Casablanca (draw refunded)
53%
Olympique Dcheïra (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing de Casablanca at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.01 · 121 matches

Olympique Dcheïra away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.17 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing de Casablanca attack 1.13 + Olympique Dcheïra defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.15

Olympique Dcheïra attack 1.13 + Racing de Casablanca defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Racing de Casablanca scores more
38%
level
29%
Olympique Dcheïra scores more
34%

Racing de Casablanca at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Racing de Casablanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Racing de Casablanca vs Olympique Dcheïra

Olympique Dcheïra beat Racing de Casablanca 1-0 in Botola 2 on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Père-Jégo in Casablanca.