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Olympique Dcheïra vs Racing de Casablanca — Botola 2 2025

Olympique Dcheïra
Olympique Dcheïra
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Racing de Casablanca
Racing de Casablanca
1/4/2025Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 12Stade Ahmed Fana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Olympique Dcheïra47%
×Draw28%
Racing de Casablanca25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympique Dcheïra
1.35
Racing de Casablanca
0.90

Olympique Dcheïra creates 50% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 120 away

creates per match

Olympique Dcheïra
1.44
Racing de Casablanca
1.01

allows per match

Olympique Dcheïra
0.78
Racing de Casablanca
1.27

finishing

Olympique Dcheïra+0.00on par
Racing de Casablanca+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Dcheïra ↓

Racing de Casablanca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Olympique Dcheïra or draw
75%
Olympique Dcheïra or Racing de Casablanca
72%
Draw or Racing de Casablanca
53%

Winning margin

Olympique Dcheïra wins by 2+
22%
Racing de Casablanca wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Olympique Dcheïra 1+ goals
74%
Olympique Dcheïra 2+ goals
39%
Olympique Dcheïra 3+ goals
15%
Racing de Casablanca 1+ goals
59%
Racing de Casablanca 2+ goals
23%
Racing de Casablanca 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Olympique Dcheïra (draw refunded)
65%
Racing de Casablanca (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Dcheïra at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.78 · 105 matches

Racing de Casablanca away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.27 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Dcheïra attack 1.44 + Racing de Casablanca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.35

Racing de Casablanca attack 1.01 + Olympique Dcheïra defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Olympique Dcheïra scores more
47%
level
28%
Racing de Casablanca scores more
25%

Olympique Dcheïra at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Olympique Dcheïra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olympique Dcheïra vs Racing de Casablanca

Olympique Dcheïra beat Racing de Casablanca 2-0 in Botola 2 on January 4, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Ahmed Fana in Dcheïra El Jihadia.