Racing de Casablanca 3–0 Ittifaq Marrakech

Racing de Casablanca

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Ittifaq Marrakech

12/10/2023

Botola 2 · Round 14Stade Père-Jégo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Racing de Casablanca45%

×Draw30%

Ittifaq Marrakech25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing de CasablancaExpected goals in this matchIttifaq Marrakech

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.79

Racing de Casablanca

1.17

Ittifaq Marrakech

0.79

Racing de Casablanca creates 48% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 30 away

1.13

creates per match

0.57

1.01

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Racing de Casablanca

1.13

Ittifaq Marrakech

0.57

allows per match

Racing de Casablanca

1.01

Ittifaq Marrakech

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing de Casablanca+0.00on par

Ittifaq Marrakech+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing de Casablanca ↓

Ittifaq Marrakech →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Racing de Casablanca or draw

75%

Racing de Casablanca or Ittifaq Marrakech

70%

Draw or Ittifaq Marrakech

55%

Winning margin

Racing de Casablanca wins by 2+

19%

Ittifaq Marrakech wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Racing de Casablanca 1+ goals

69%

Racing de Casablanca 2+ goals

33%

Racing de Casablanca 3+ goals

11%

Ittifaq Marrakech 1+ goals

55%

Ittifaq Marrakech 2+ goals

19%

Ittifaq Marrakech 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Racing de Casablanca (draw refunded)

64%

Ittifaq Marrakech (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing de Casablanca at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.01 · 121 matches

Ittifaq Marrakech away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.20 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing de Casablanca attack 1.13 + Ittifaq Marrakech defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Ittifaq Marrakech attack 0.57 + Racing de Casablanca defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Racing de Casablanca scores more

45%

level

30%

Ittifaq Marrakech scores more

25%

Racing de Casablanca at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Racing de Casablanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff