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Ittifaq Marrakech vs Racing de Casablanca — Botola 2 2025

Ittifaq Marrakech
Ittifaq Marrakech
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Racing de Casablanca
Racing de Casablanca
4/16/2023Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 23Stade de Marrakech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ittifaq Marrakech38%
×Draw30%
Racing de Casablanca32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ittifaq Marrakech
1.12
Racing de Casablanca
0.99

Ittifaq Marrakech creates 13% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 120 away

creates per match

Ittifaq Marrakech
0.97
Racing de Casablanca
1.01

allows per match

Ittifaq Marrakech
0.97
Racing de Casablanca
1.27

finishing

Ittifaq Marrakech+0.00on par
Racing de Casablanca+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ittifaq Marrakech ↓

Racing de Casablanca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ittifaq Marrakech or draw
68%
Ittifaq Marrakech or Racing de Casablanca
70%
Draw or Racing de Casablanca
62%

Winning margin

Ittifaq Marrakech wins by 2+
16%
Racing de Casablanca wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ittifaq Marrakech 1+ goals
67%
Ittifaq Marrakech 2+ goals
31%
Ittifaq Marrakech 3+ goals
10%
Racing de Casablanca 1+ goals
63%
Racing de Casablanca 2+ goals
26%
Racing de Casablanca 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ittifaq Marrakech (draw refunded)
55%
Racing de Casablanca (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ittifaq Marrakech at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.97 · 30 matches

Racing de Casablanca away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.27 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ittifaq Marrakech attack 0.97 + Racing de Casablanca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.12

Racing de Casablanca attack 1.01 + Ittifaq Marrakech defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ittifaq Marrakech scores more
38%
level
30%
Racing de Casablanca scores more
32%

Ittifaq Marrakech at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ittifaq Marrakech will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: Ittifaq Marrakech 2–1 Racing de Casablanca

Ittifaq Marrakech beat Racing de Casablanca 2-1 in Botola 2 on April 16, 2023.

The match was played at Stade de Marrakech in Marrakech.