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Racing de Casablanca vs CODM Meknès — Botola 2 2025

Racing de Casablanca
Racing de Casablanca
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
CODM Meknès
CODM Meknès
6/15/2024Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 30Stade Père-Jégo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Racing de Casablanca35%
×Draw31%
CODM Meknès34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing de Casablanca
1.00
CODM Meknès
0.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 121 home / 15 away

creates per match

Racing de Casablanca
1.13
CODM Meknès
0.93

allows per match

Racing de Casablanca
1.01
CODM Meknès
0.87

finishing

Racing de Casablanca+0.00on par
CODM Meknès+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing de Casablanca ↓

CODM Meknès →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Racing de Casablanca or draw
66%
Racing de Casablanca or CODM Meknès
69%
Draw or CODM Meknès
65%

Winning margin

Racing de Casablanca wins by 2+
13%
CODM Meknès wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Racing de Casablanca 1+ goals
63%
Racing de Casablanca 2+ goals
26%
Racing de Casablanca 3+ goals
8%
CODM Meknès 1+ goals
62%
CODM Meknès 2+ goals
25%
CODM Meknès 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Racing de Casablanca (draw refunded)
51%
CODM Meknès (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing de Casablanca at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.01 · 121 matches

CODM Meknès away — creates 0.93, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing de Casablanca attack 1.13 + CODM Meknès defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.00

CODM Meknès attack 0.93 + Racing de Casablanca defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Racing de Casablanca scores more
35%
level
31%
CODM Meknès scores more
34%

Racing de Casablanca at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Racing de Casablanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Racing de Casablanca vs CODM Meknès

Racing de Casablanca beat CODM Meknès 1-0 in Botola 2 on June 15, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Père-Jégo in Casablanca.