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CODM Meknès vs Racing de Casablanca — Botola 2 2025

CODM Meknès
CODM Meknès
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Racing de Casablanca
Racing de Casablanca
12/17/2023Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 15Stade d'Honneur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

CODM Meknès49%
×Draw27%
Racing de Casablanca25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CODM Meknès
1.44
Racing de Casablanca
0.94

CODM Meknès creates 53% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 120 away

creates per match

CODM Meknès
1.60
Racing de Casablanca
1.01

allows per match

CODM Meknès
0.87
Racing de Casablanca
1.27

finishing

CODM Meknès+0.00on par
Racing de Casablanca+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CODM Meknès ↓

Racing de Casablanca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

CODM Meknès or draw
75%
CODM Meknès or Racing de Casablanca
73%
Draw or Racing de Casablanca
51%

Winning margin

CODM Meknès wins by 2+
24%
Racing de Casablanca wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

CODM Meknès 1+ goals
76%
CODM Meknès 2+ goals
42%
CODM Meknès 3+ goals
18%
Racing de Casablanca 1+ goals
61%
Racing de Casablanca 2+ goals
24%
Racing de Casablanca 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

CODM Meknès (draw refunded)
66%
Racing de Casablanca (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CODM Meknès at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Racing de Casablanca away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.27 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CODM Meknès attack 1.60 + Racing de Casablanca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.44

Racing de Casablanca attack 1.01 + CODM Meknès defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

CODM Meknès scores more
49%
level
27%
Racing de Casablanca scores more
25%

CODM Meknès at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "CODM Meknès will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: CODM Meknès 2–1 Racing de Casablanca

CODM Meknès beat Racing de Casablanca 2-1 in Botola 2 on December 17, 2023.

The match was played at Stade d'Honneur in Meknès.