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Racing de Casablanca vs Chabab Ben Guerir — Botola 2 2025

Racing de Casablanca
Racing de Casablanca
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Chabab Ben Guerir
Chabab Ben Guerir
12/30/2024Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 11Stade Ahmed Choukri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Racing de Casablanca42%
×Draw30%
Chabab Ben Guerir29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing de Casablanca
1.17
Chabab Ben Guerir
0.92

Racing de Casablanca creates 27% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 120 away

creates per match

Racing de Casablanca
1.13
Chabab Ben Guerir
0.83

allows per match

Racing de Casablanca
1.01
Chabab Ben Guerir
1.21

finishing

Racing de Casablanca+0.00on par
Chabab Ben Guerir+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing de Casablanca ↓

Chabab Ben Guerir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Racing de Casablanca or draw
71%
Racing de Casablanca or Chabab Ben Guerir
70%
Draw or Chabab Ben Guerir
58%

Winning margin

Racing de Casablanca wins by 2+
18%
Chabab Ben Guerir wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Racing de Casablanca 1+ goals
69%
Racing de Casablanca 2+ goals
33%
Racing de Casablanca 3+ goals
11%
Chabab Ben Guerir 1+ goals
60%
Chabab Ben Guerir 2+ goals
23%
Chabab Ben Guerir 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Racing de Casablanca (draw refunded)
59%
Chabab Ben Guerir (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing de Casablanca at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.01 · 121 matches

Chabab Ben Guerir away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.21 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing de Casablanca attack 1.13 + Chabab Ben Guerir defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Chabab Ben Guerir attack 0.83 + Racing de Casablanca defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Racing de Casablanca scores more
42%
level
30%
Chabab Ben Guerir scores more
29%

Racing de Casablanca at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Racing de Casablanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: Racing de Casablanca 3–1 Chabab Ben Guerir

Racing de Casablanca beat Chabab Ben Guerir 3-1 in Botola 2 on December 30, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Ahmed Choukri in Zemamra.