Chabab Ben Guerir 1–3 Racing de Casablanca

Chabab Ben Guerir

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Racing de Casablanca

5/3/2025

Botola 2 · Round 26Stade Municipal Ben Guerir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Chabab Ben Guerir40%

×Draw31%

Racing de Casablanca29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chabab Ben GuerirExpected goals in this matchRacing de Casablanca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

0.88

Chabab Ben Guerir

1.09

Racing de Casablanca

0.88

Chabab Ben Guerir creates 24% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 120 away

0.91

creates per match

1.01

0.74

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Chabab Ben Guerir

0.91

Racing de Casablanca

1.01

allows per match

Chabab Ben Guerir

0.74

Racing de Casablanca

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chabab Ben Guerir+0.00on par

Racing de Casablanca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab Ben Guerir ↓

Racing de Casablanca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Chabab Ben Guerir or draw

71%

Chabab Ben Guerir or Racing de Casablanca

69%

Draw or Racing de Casablanca

60%

Winning margin

Chabab Ben Guerir wins by 2+

16%

Racing de Casablanca wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Chabab Ben Guerir 1+ goals

66%

Chabab Ben Guerir 2+ goals

30%

Chabab Ben Guerir 3+ goals

10%

Racing de Casablanca 1+ goals

59%

Racing de Casablanca 2+ goals

22%

Racing de Casablanca 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Chabab Ben Guerir (draw refunded)

58%

Racing de Casablanca (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab Ben Guerir at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.74 · 118 matches

Racing de Casablanca away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.27 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab Ben Guerir attack 0.91 + Racing de Casablanca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.09

Racing de Casablanca attack 1.01 + Chabab Ben Guerir defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chabab Ben Guerir scores more

40%

level

31%

Racing de Casablanca scores more

29%

Chabab Ben Guerir at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Chabab Ben Guerir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff