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Racing Cordoba vs Guillermo Brown — Primera Nacional 2026

Racing Cordoba
Racing Cordoba
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Guillermo Brown
Guillermo Brown
6/23/2024Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 20Estadio Miguel Sancho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Racing Cordoba50%
×Draw29%
Guillermo Brown22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Cordoba
1.31
Guillermo Brown
0.76

Racing Cordoba creates 72% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 99 away

creates per match

Racing Cordoba
1.35
Guillermo Brown
0.69

allows per match

Racing Cordoba
0.84
Guillermo Brown
1.28

finishing

Racing Cordoba+0.00on par
Guillermo Brown+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Cordoba ↓

Guillermo Brown →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Racing Cordoba or draw
78%
Racing Cordoba or Guillermo Brown
71%
Draw or Guillermo Brown
50%

Winning margin

Racing Cordoba wins by 2+
23%
Guillermo Brown wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Racing Cordoba 1+ goals
73%
Racing Cordoba 2+ goals
38%
Racing Cordoba 3+ goals
14%
Guillermo Brown 1+ goals
53%
Guillermo Brown 2+ goals
18%
Guillermo Brown 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Racing Cordoba (draw refunded)
70%
Guillermo Brown (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Cordoba at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.84 · 63 matches

Guillermo Brown away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.28 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Cordoba attack 1.35 + Guillermo Brown defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.31

Guillermo Brown attack 0.69 + Racing Cordoba defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Racing Cordoba scores more
50%
level
29%
Guillermo Brown scores more
22%

Racing Cordoba at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Racing Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Nacional: Racing Cordoba 1–2 Guillermo Brown

Guillermo Brown beat Racing Cordoba 2-1 in Primera Nacional on June 23, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Miguel Sancho in Ciudad de Córdoba, Provincia de Córdoba.