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Guillermo Brown vs Racing Cordoba — Primera Nacional 2026

Guillermo Brown
Guillermo Brown
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Racing Cordoba
Racing Cordoba
2/4/2024Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 1Estadio Raúl Conti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Guillermo Brown45%
×Draw29%
Racing Cordoba26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guillermo Brown
1.25
Racing Cordoba
0.86

Guillermo Brown creates 45% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 65 away

creates per match

Guillermo Brown
1.00
Racing Cordoba
0.85

allows per match

Guillermo Brown
0.88
Racing Cordoba
1.49

finishing

Guillermo Brown+0.00on par
Racing Cordoba+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guillermo Brown ↓

Racing Cordoba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Guillermo Brown or draw
74%
Guillermo Brown or Racing Cordoba
71%
Draw or Racing Cordoba
55%

Winning margin

Guillermo Brown wins by 2+
20%
Racing Cordoba wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Guillermo Brown 1+ goals
71%
Guillermo Brown 2+ goals
36%
Guillermo Brown 3+ goals
13%
Racing Cordoba 1+ goals
58%
Racing Cordoba 2+ goals
21%
Racing Cordoba 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Guillermo Brown (draw refunded)
64%
Racing Cordoba (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guillermo Brown at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.88 · 100 matches

Racing Cordoba away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.49 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guillermo Brown attack 1.00 + Racing Cordoba defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.25

Racing Cordoba attack 0.85 + Guillermo Brown defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Guillermo Brown scores more
45%
level
29%
Racing Cordoba scores more
26%

Guillermo Brown at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Guillermo Brown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guillermo Brown vs Racing Cordoba

Guillermo Brown and Racing Cordoba drew 1-1 in Primera Nacional on February 4, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Raúl Conti in Puerto Madryn, Provincia de Chubut.