Racing Club 1–1 Flamengo: Result & Stats

Racing Club

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Flamengo

N. Oroz 73'

Gabriel Barbosa 45+3'

5/4/2023

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 3Estadio Presidente Juan Domingo Perón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Racing Club44%

×Draw28%

Flamengo28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing ClubExpected goals in this matchFlamengo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.01

Racing Club

1.34

Flamengo

1.01

Racing Club creates 33% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 39 away

1.68

creates per match

1.33

0.68

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Racing Club

1.68

Flamengo

1.33

allows per match

Racing Club

0.68

Flamengo

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Club+0.00on par

Flamengo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Club ↓

Flamengo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Racing Club or draw

72%

Racing Club or Flamengo

72%

Draw or Flamengo

56%

Winning margin

Racing Club wins by 2+

21%

Flamengo wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Racing Club 1+ goals

74%

Racing Club 2+ goals

39%

Racing Club 3+ goals

15%

Flamengo 1+ goals

64%

Flamengo 2+ goals

27%

Flamengo 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Racing Club (draw refunded)

61%

Flamengo (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Club at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.68 · 19 matches

Flamengo away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Club attack 1.68 + Flamengo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.34

Flamengo attack 1.33 + Racing Club defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Racing Club scores more

44%

level

28%

Flamengo scores more

28%

Racing Club at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Racing Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

N. Oroz

Racing Club · M

7.6

Match Events

13'

20'

25'

26'

26'

45+2'

45+3'

Gabriel Barbosa↳ E. Pulgar

46'

J. Galván← A. Moreno

46'

N. Reniero← P. Guerrero

59'

Erick Pulgar

65'

G. de Arrascaeta← A. Vidal

65'

Bruno Henrique← Pedro

68'

71'

71'

73'

79'

E. Saliadarre← M. Romero

82'

Everton← Éverton Ribeiro

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RacingFlamengo

Overview

29%Possession71%

9Total Shots11

2Corners4

14Fouls14

Shots

9Total Shots11

3On Target1

3Off Target6

3Blocked4

6Inside Box7

3Outside Box4

Passing

29%Possession71%

243Total Passes602

188Accurate Passes535

77%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls14

4Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards1

2Offsides0