Flamengo 1–1 Racing Club: Result & Stats

Flamengo

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Racing Club

W. Arao 90+3'

L. Sigali 65'

12/2/2020

CONMEBOL Libertadores · 8th FinalsEstadio Jornalista Mário Filho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Flamengo53%

×Draw25%

Racing Club22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FlamengoExpected goals in this matchRacing Club

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.95

Flamengo

1.63

Racing Club

0.95

Flamengo creates 72% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 19 away

2.41

creates per match

1.42

0.49

allows per match

0.84

creates per match

Flamengo

2.41

Racing Club

1.42

allows per match

Flamengo

0.49

Racing Club

0.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Flamengo+0.00on par

Racing Club+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamengo ↓

Racing Club →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Flamengo or draw

78%

Flamengo or Racing Club

75%

Draw or Racing Club

47%

Winning margin

Flamengo wins by 2+

28%

Racing Club wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Flamengo 1+ goals

80%

Flamengo 2+ goals

48%

Flamengo 3+ goals

22%

Racing Club 1+ goals

61%

Racing Club 2+ goals

25%

Racing Club 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Flamengo (draw refunded)

71%

Racing Club (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamengo at home — creates 2.41, concedes 0.49 · 39 matches

Racing Club away — creates 1.42, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamengo attack 2.41 + Racing Club defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.63

Racing Club attack 1.42 + Flamengo defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Flamengo scores more

53%

level

25%

Racing Club scores more

22%

Flamengo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Flamengo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

Leonardo Sigali

Racing Club · D

8.2

Match Events

27'

R. Caio

43'

N. Reniero← C. J. Alcaraz

54'

H. Fertoli← W. Montoya

61'

S.

63'

R. Caio

63'

R. Caio

65'

G. De Arrascaeta← J. Gomes

65'

L. Sigali

69'

E. Ribeiro← Pedro

73'

N. Dominguez← L. Orban

80'

E. Mena

87'

F. Dominguez

89'

Gustavo Henrique← Diego

90+3'

W. Arao↳ Diego

90+5'

Filipe Luis

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FlamengoRacing

Overview

67%Possession33%

19Total Shots5

15Corners0

13Fouls12

Shots

19Total Shots5

5On Target3

7Off Target1

7Blocked1

15Inside Box3

4Outside Box2

Passing

67%Possession33%

554Total Passes277

472Accurate Passes187

85%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls12

3Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

1Offsides0