Racing Club vs Defensa Y Justicia — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 5+ matches
Racing Club41%
Defensa Y Justicia33%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Racing Club creates 14% more chances
Season form · 10 home / 5 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes53
- No47
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Racing Club ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Racing Club at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.06 · 10 matches
Defensa Y Justicia away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.76 · 5 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Racing Club attack 1.03 + Defensa Y Justicia defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.40
Defensa Y Justicia attack 1.41 + Racing Club defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.23
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
Racing Club at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "Racing Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Racing Club
Estudiantes L.P.
Boca Juniors
Rosario Central
Independ. Rivadavia
Argentinos JRS
Belgrano Cordoba
Gimnasia L.P.
Huracan
Independiente
Velez Sarsfield
Union Santa Fe
River Plate
San Lorenzo
Tigre
Barracas Central
LanusDefensa Y Justicia
Talleres Cordoba
Banfield
Central Cordoba de Santiago
Instituto Cordoba
Sarmiento Junin
Deportivo Riestra
Platense
Atletico Tucuman
Newells Old Boys
Gimnasia M.
Aldosivi
Estudiantes de Rio CuartoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Racing Club host Defensa Y Justicia on Saturday, 19 October 2024 at 20:00. The match is part of the Liga Profesional Argentina 2026/2027 season.
Liga Profesional Argentina: Racing Club 4–3 Defensa Y Justicia
Racing Club beat Defensa Y Justicia 4-3 in Liga Profesional Argentina on October 19, 2024.
Goals: G. Martirena (30'), A. Martínez (41', 45+1'), M. Ramírez (70'), A. Osorio (76' pen), M. Salas (84'), A. Molinas (90+2').
Defensa Y Justicia controlled possession (56%) and registered 20 shots to 15.
The match was played at Estadio Presidente Juan Domingo Perón in Avellaneda, Provincia de Buenos Aires.