Defensa Y Justicia vs Racing Club — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 23+ matches
Defensa Y Justicia32%
Racing Club39%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Racing Club creates 12% more chances
Season form · 23 home / 28 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under61
- Over39
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No55
- Yes45
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Defensa Y Justicia ↓
Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Defensa Y Justicia at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.96 · 23 matches
Racing Club away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.07 · 28 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Defensa Y Justicia attack 1.04 + Racing Club defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06
Racing Club attack 1.43 + Defensa Y Justicia defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.19
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
Racing Club at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "Racing Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Racing Club
Estudiantes L.P.
Boca Juniors
Rosario Central
Independ. Rivadavia
Argentinos JRS
Belgrano Cordoba
Gimnasia L.P.
Huracan
Independiente
Velez Sarsfield
Union Santa Fe
River Plate
San Lorenzo
Tigre
Barracas Central
LanusDefensa Y Justicia
Talleres Cordoba
Banfield
Central Cordoba de Santiago
Instituto Cordoba
Sarmiento Junin
Deportivo Riestra
Platense
Atletico Tucuman
Newells Old Boys
Gimnasia M.
Aldosivi
Estudiantes de Rio CuartoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Defensa Y Justicia host Racing Club on Monday, 28 April 2025 at 22:30. The match is part of the Liga Profesional Argentina 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Defensa Y Justicia vs Racing Club
Racing Club beat Defensa Y Justicia 2-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on April 28, 2025.
Goals: F. Gonzalez (54'), M. Salas (72'), G. N. Martirena Torres (87').
Racing Club controlled possession (54%) and registered 10 shots to 17.
The match was played at Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello in Gobernador Julio A. Costa.