Racing Club 2–3 Botafogo: Result & Stats

Racing Club

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Botafogo

Adrian Martinez 64'

S. Sosa 4'

Danilo 90'

Junior Santos 41'

Arthur Cabral 23'

4/15/2026

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 2Estadio Presidente Peron

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Racing Club48%

×Draw24%

Botafogo28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing ClubExpected goals in this matchBotafogo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.26

Racing Club

1.73

Botafogo

1.26

Racing Club creates 37% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

2.54

creates per match

1.75

0.77

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Racing Club

2.54

Botafogo

1.75

allows per match

Racing Club

0.77

Botafogo

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Club+0.00on par

Botafogo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Club ↓

Botafogo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Racing Club or draw

72%

Racing Club or Botafogo

76%

Draw or Botafogo

52%

Winning margin

Racing Club wins by 2+

26%

Botafogo wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Racing Club 1+ goals

82%

Racing Club 2+ goals

52%

Racing Club 3+ goals

25%

Botafogo 1+ goals

72%

Botafogo 2+ goals

36%

Botafogo 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Racing Club (draw refunded)

63%

Botafogo (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Club at home — creates 2.54, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

Botafogo away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Club attack 2.54 + Botafogo defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.73

Botafogo attack 1.75 + Racing Club defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Racing Club scores more

48%

level

24%

Botafogo scores more

28%

Racing Club at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Racing Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

S. Sosa

Racing Club · M

8.2

Match Events

4'

S. Sosa↳ I. Rodriguez

23'

Arthur Cabral

38'

Allan

41'

Junior Santos↳ A. Barboza

46'

A. Fernandez← G. Sosa

57'

Danilo← Edenilson

57'

L. M. Villalba Jaume← Junior Santos

62'

S. Solari← T. Conechny

62'

D. Vergara← G. N. Martirena Torres

64'

Adrian Martinez↳ E. Cannavo

75'

Baltasar Rodriguez

77'

Ezequiel Cannavo

77'

Arthur Cabral

80'

B. Zuculini← B. Rodriguez

80'

Caio Roque← Alex Telles

80'

J. Barrera← Matheus Martins

86'

Mateo Ponte

90'

Adrián Fernández

90+3'

K. Barria← Arthur Cabral

90'

Danilo↳ K. Barria

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RacingBotafogo

Overview

64%Possession36%

17Total Shots11

3.87Expected Goals (xG)1.61

8Corners5

17Fouls8

Shots

17Total Shots11

7On Target4

5Off Target3

5Blocked4

13Inside Box6

4Outside Box5

Passing

64%Possession36%

451Total Passes267

356Accurate Passes180

79%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

0.68Goals Prevented0.68

Discipline

17Fouls8

3Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1