Botafogo 2–1 Racing Club: Result & Stats

Botafogo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Racing Club

Danilo 74'

M. Di Cesare 19' (OG)

Adrian Martinez 49'

5/7/2026

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 4Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Botafogo42%

×Draw28%

Racing Club30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BotafogoExpected goals in this matchRacing Club

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.05

Botafogo

1.30

Racing Club

1.05

Botafogo creates 24% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

1.45

creates per match

1.46

0.64

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Botafogo

1.45

Racing Club

1.46

allows per match

Botafogo

0.64

Racing Club

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botafogo+0.00on par

Racing Club+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo ↓

Racing Club →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Botafogo or draw

70%

Botafogo or Racing Club

72%

Draw or Racing Club

58%

Winning margin

Botafogo wins by 2+

19%

Racing Club wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Botafogo 1+ goals

73%

Botafogo 2+ goals

37%

Botafogo 3+ goals

14%

Racing Club 1+ goals

65%

Racing Club 2+ goals

28%

Racing Club 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Botafogo (draw refunded)

58%

Racing Club (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

Racing Club away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo attack 1.45 + Racing Club defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.30

Racing Club attack 1.46 + Botafogo defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Botafogo scores more

42%

level

28%

Racing Club scores more

30%

Botafogo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Botafogo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Danilo

Botafogo · M

7.7

Match Events

3'

Adrián Fernández

19'

M. Di CesareOwn goal

26'

Kadir Barría

30'

Baltasar Rodriguez

49'

Adrian Martinez

59'

M. Zaracho← B. Rodriguez

60'

T. Conechny← S. Solari

61'

Arthur Cabral← K. Barria

65'

B. Zuculini← A. Forneris

74'

Danilo↳ Matheus Martins

76'

Edenilson← Matheus Martins

77'

L. M. Villalba Jaume← Junior Santos

79'

Marco Di Cesare

79'

M. Miljevic← A. Fernandez

80'

87'

90'

90+3'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BotafogoRacing

Overview

44%Possession56%

12Total Shots13

1.17Expected Goals (xG)0.75

5Corners4

9Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots13

4On Target5

5Off Target5

3Blocked3

5Inside Box10

7Outside Box3

Passing

44%Possession56%

281Total Passes350

197Accurate Passes255

70%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

-1.12Goals Prevented-1.12

Discipline

9Fouls9

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

3Offsides2

Match Recap: Botafogo vs Racing Club

Botafogo beat Racing Club 2-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 7, 2026.

Goals: M. Di Cesare (19' o.g.), Adrian Martinez (49'), Danilo (74').

Racing Club controlled possession (56%) and registered 13 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos in Rio de Janeiro.

Botafogo vs Racing Club — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Botafogo vs Racing Club