Racing Club 3–0 Atletico Nacional: Result & Stats

Racing Club

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Atletico Nacional

J. Aguirre 56' (OG)

A. Ojeda 50'

Roger Martínez 28'

8/11/2023

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Round of 16Estadio Presidente Juan Domingo Perón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Racing Club60%

×Draw25%

Atletico Nacional16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing ClubExpected goals in this matchAtletico Nacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

0.69

Racing Club

1.62

Atletico Nacional

0.69

Racing Club creates 135% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 16 away

1.68

creates per match

0.69

0.68

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Racing Club

1.68

Atletico Nacional

0.69

allows per match

Racing Club

0.68

Atletico Nacional

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Club+0.00on par

Atletico Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Club ↓

Atletico Nacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Racing Club or draw

84%

Racing Club or Atletico Nacional

75%

Draw or Atletico Nacional

40%

Winning margin

Racing Club wins by 2+

33%

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Racing Club 1+ goals

80%

Racing Club 2+ goals

48%

Racing Club 3+ goals

22%

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

50%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

15%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Racing Club (draw refunded)

79%

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Club at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.68 · 19 matches

Atletico Nacional away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Club attack 1.68 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.62

Atletico Nacional attack 0.69 + Racing Club defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Racing Club scores more

60%

level

25%

Atletico Nacional scores more

16%

Racing Club at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Racing Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

G. Piovi

Racing Club · D

8.2

Match Events

10'

Gonzalo Piovi

25'

Tobias Rubio

27'

Cristián Zapata

28'

Roger Martínez↳ G. Rojas

31'

Jonatan Gómez

50'

A. Ojeda↳ A. Moreno

56'

J. AguirreOwn goal

60'

A. Román← C. Devenish

60'

E. Ramírez← Jefferson Duque

60'

B. Palacios← M. Cantera

63'

B. Gallego← A. Ojeda

66'

S. Quirós← G. Hauche

68'

M. Romero← Roger Martínez

68'

J. Torres← Jhon Duque

80'

J. Asprilla← N. Moreno

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RacingAtletico

Overview

55%Possession45%

20Total Shots7

1.09Expected Goals (xG)0.14

9Corners0

14Fouls13

Shots

20Total Shots7

6On Target1

12Off Target6

2Blocked0

11Inside Box3

9Outside Box4

Passing

55%Possession45%

331Total Passes284

259Accurate Passes189

78%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls13

3Yellow Cards1

8Offsides0