Atletico Nacional 4–2 Racing Club: Result & Stats

Atletico Nacional

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Racing Club

M. Cantera 90+5', 83'

Jefferson Duque 61'

C. Zapata 34'

G. Piovi 90+4' (pen), 87' (pen)

8/4/2023

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Round of 16Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Atletico Nacional38%

×Draw28%

Racing Club34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico NacionalExpected goals in this matchRacing Club

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.15

Atletico Nacional

1.23

Racing Club

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 19 away

1.63

creates per match

1.42

0.88

allows per match

0.84

creates per match

Atletico Nacional

1.63

Racing Club

1.42

allows per match

Atletico Nacional

0.88

Racing Club

0.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Nacional+0.00on par

Racing Club+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Racing Club →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw

66%

Atletico Nacional or Racing Club

72%

Draw or Racing Club

62%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

16%

Racing Club wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

71%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

35%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

13%

Racing Club 1+ goals

68%

Racing Club 2+ goals

32%

Racing Club 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

53%

Racing Club (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Racing Club away — creates 1.42, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 1.63 + Racing Club defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.23

Racing Club attack 1.42 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more

38%

level

28%

Racing Club scores more

34%

Atletico Nacional at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Cantera

Atletico Nacional · M

8.3

Match Events

-5'

9'

34'

45+4'

45+1'

46'

G. Martirena← F. Mura

59'

M. Cantera← B. Palacios

61'

Jefferson Duque↳ N. Moreno

63'

Gabriel Hauche

65'

Roger Martínez← J. Gómez

70'

Gastón Martirena

72'

É. Ocampo← C. Devenish

72'

E. Ramírez← Jefferson Duque

77'

78'

79'

83'

84'

B. Gallego← M. Romero

87'

Cristián Zapata

87'

G. PioviPenalty

90+2'

Óscar Perea

90+4'

G. PioviPenalty

90+5'

M. Cantera↳ Ó. Perea

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoRacing

Overview

29%Possession71%

13Total Shots17

1.25Expected Goals (xG)2.45

5Corners6

12Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots17

7On Target5

4Off Target3

2Blocked9

7Inside Box11

6Outside Box6

Passing

29%Possession71%

182Total Passes450

111Accurate Passes363

61%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls11

6Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Atletico Nacional 4–2 Racing Club

Atletico Nacional beat Racing Club 4-2 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on August 4, 2023.

Goals: C. Zapata (34'), Jefferson Duque (61'), M. Cantera (83', 90+5'), G. Piovi (87' pen, 90+4' pen).

Racing Club controlled possession (71%) and registered 17 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellín.

Atletico Nacional vs Racing Club — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Atletico Nacional 4–2 Racing Club