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Racing CF Benidorm vs La Nucía — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Racing CF Benidorm
Racing CF Benidorm
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
La Nucía
La Nucía
1/11/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 17Estadio Municipal Guillermo Amor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Racing CF Benidorm24%
×Draw28%
La Nucía48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing CF Benidorm
0.86
La Nucía
1.35

La Nucía creates 57% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 36 away

creates per match

Racing CF Benidorm
1.06
La Nucía
1.11

allows per match

Racing CF Benidorm
1.59
La Nucía
0.67

finishing

Racing CF Benidorm+0.00on par
La Nucía+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing CF Benidorm ↓

La Nucía →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–115%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Racing CF Benidorm or draw
52%
Racing CF Benidorm or La Nucía
72%
Draw or La Nucía
76%

Winning margin

Racing CF Benidorm wins by 2+
8%
La Nucía wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Racing CF Benidorm 1+ goals
58%
Racing CF Benidorm 2+ goals
21%
Racing CF Benidorm 3+ goals
6%
La Nucía 1+ goals
74%
La Nucía 2+ goals
39%
La Nucía 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Racing CF Benidorm (draw refunded)
33%
La Nucía (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing CF Benidorm at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

La Nucía away — creates 1.11, concedes 0.67 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing CF Benidorm attack 1.06 + La Nucía defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.86

La Nucía attack 1.11 + Racing CF Benidorm defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Racing CF Benidorm scores more
24%
level
28%
La Nucía scores more
48%

La Nucía at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "La Nucía will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Racing CF Benidorm 1 – 0 La Nucía

Racing CF Benidorm beat La Nucía 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on January 11, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Guillermo Amor in Benidorm.