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La Nucía vs Racing CF Benidorm — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

La Nucía
La Nucía
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Racing CF Benidorm
Racing CF Benidorm
5/11/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 34Estadi Olímpic Camilo Cano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

La Nucía49%
×Draw26%
Racing CF Benidorm24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

La Nucía
1.47
Racing CF Benidorm
0.94

La Nucía creates 56% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 17 away

creates per match

La Nucía
1.53
Racing CF Benidorm
1.06

allows per match

La Nucía
0.81
Racing CF Benidorm
1.41

finishing

La Nucía+0.00on par
Racing CF Benidorm+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Nucía ↓

Racing CF Benidorm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

La Nucía or draw
76%
La Nucía or Racing CF Benidorm
74%
Draw or Racing CF Benidorm
51%

Winning margin

La Nucía wins by 2+
25%
Racing CF Benidorm wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

La Nucía 1+ goals
77%
La Nucía 2+ goals
43%
La Nucía 3+ goals
18%
Racing CF Benidorm 1+ goals
61%
Racing CF Benidorm 2+ goals
24%
Racing CF Benidorm 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

La Nucía (draw refunded)
67%
Racing CF Benidorm (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

La Nucía at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.81 · 36 matches

Racing CF Benidorm away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

La Nucía attack 1.53 + Racing CF Benidorm defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.47

Racing CF Benidorm attack 1.06 + La Nucía defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

La Nucía scores more
49%
level
26%
Racing CF Benidorm scores more
24%

La Nucía at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "La Nucía will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: La Nucía vs Racing CF Benidorm

Racing CF Benidorm beat La Nucía 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on May 11, 2025.

The match was played at Estadi Olímpic Camilo Cano in La Nucia.