Racing CF Benidorm 1–3 Jove Español: Result & Stats

Racing CF Benidorm

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Jove Español

9/29/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 4Estadio Nou Pla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Racing CF Benidorm34%

×Draw28%

Jove Español38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing CF BenidormExpected goals in this matchJove Español

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.23

Racing CF Benidorm

1.14

Jove Español

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 110 away

1.06

creates per match

0.86

1.59

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Racing CF Benidorm

1.06

Jove Español

0.86

allows per match

Racing CF Benidorm

1.59

Jove Español

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing CF Benidorm+0.00on par

Jove Español+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing CF Benidorm ↓

Jove Español →

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Racing CF Benidorm or draw

62%

Racing CF Benidorm or Jove Español

72%

Draw or Jove Español

66%

Winning margin

Racing CF Benidorm wins by 2+

14%

Jove Español wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Racing CF Benidorm 1+ goals

68%

Racing CF Benidorm 2+ goals

32%

Racing CF Benidorm 3+ goals

11%

Jove Español 1+ goals

71%

Jove Español 2+ goals

35%

Jove Español 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Racing CF Benidorm (draw refunded)

47%

Jove Español (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Racing CF Benidorm at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Jove Español away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.21 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Racing CF Benidorm attack 1.06 + Jove Español defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.14

Jove Español attack 0.86 + Racing CF Benidorm defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Racing CF Benidorm scores more

34%

level

28%

Jove Español scores more

38%

Jove Español at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Jove Español will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Racing CF Benidorm vs Jove Español

Jove Español beat Racing CF Benidorm 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on September 29, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Nou Pla in Villajoyosa / La Vila Joiosa.

Racing CF Benidorm vs Jove Español — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Racing CF Benidorm vs Jove Español