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Jove Español vs Racing CF Benidorm — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Jove Español
Jove Español
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Racing CF Benidorm
Racing CF Benidorm
2/8/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 21Ciudad Deportiva de San Vicente del Raspeig

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Jove Español42%
×Draw28%
Racing CF Benidorm30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jove Español
1.25
Racing CF Benidorm
1.00

Jove Español creates 25% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 17 away

creates per match

Jove Español
1.10
Racing CF Benidorm
1.06

allows per match

Jove Español
0.94
Racing CF Benidorm
1.41

finishing

Jove Español+0.00on par
Racing CF Benidorm+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jove Español ↓

Racing CF Benidorm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Jove Español or draw
70%
Jove Español or Racing CF Benidorm
72%
Draw or Racing CF Benidorm
58%

Winning margin

Jove Español wins by 2+
19%
Racing CF Benidorm wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Jove Español 1+ goals
71%
Jove Español 2+ goals
36%
Jove Español 3+ goals
13%
Racing CF Benidorm 1+ goals
63%
Racing CF Benidorm 2+ goals
26%
Racing CF Benidorm 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Jove Español (draw refunded)
59%
Racing CF Benidorm (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jove Español at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.94 · 110 matches

Racing CF Benidorm away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jove Español attack 1.10 + Racing CF Benidorm defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.25

Racing CF Benidorm attack 1.06 + Jove Español defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Jove Español scores more
42%
level
28%
Racing CF Benidorm scores more
30%

Jove Español at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Jove Español will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Jove Español 0–2 Racing CF Benidorm

Racing CF Benidorm beat Jove Español 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on February 8, 2025.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de San Vicente del Raspeig in San Vicente del Raspeig.