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Racing CF Benidorm vs Castellón II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Racing CF Benidorm
Racing CF Benidorm
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 3
Castellón II
Castellón II
4/20/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 31Estadio Municipal Guillermo Amor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Racing CF Benidorm35%
×Draw26%
Castellón II40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing CF Benidorm
1.30
Castellón II
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 67 away

creates per match

Racing CF Benidorm
1.06
Castellón II
1.22

allows per match

Racing CF Benidorm
1.59
Castellón II
1.54

finishing

Racing CF Benidorm+0.00on par
Castellón II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing CF Benidorm ↓

Castellón II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Racing CF Benidorm or draw
60%
Racing CF Benidorm or Castellón II
74%
Draw or Castellón II
65%

Winning margin

Racing CF Benidorm wins by 2+
15%
Castellón II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Racing CF Benidorm 1+ goals
73%
Racing CF Benidorm 2+ goals
37%
Racing CF Benidorm 3+ goals
14%
Castellón II 1+ goals
76%
Castellón II 2+ goals
41%
Castellón II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Racing CF Benidorm (draw refunded)
47%
Castellón II (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing CF Benidorm at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Castellón II away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.54 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing CF Benidorm attack 1.06 + Castellón II defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.30

Castellón II attack 1.22 + Racing CF Benidorm defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Racing CF Benidorm scores more
35%
level
26%
Castellón II scores more
40%

Castellón II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Castellón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Racing CF Benidorm 1 – 5 Castellón II

Castellón II beat Racing CF Benidorm 5-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on April 20, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Guillermo Amor in Benidorm.