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Castellón II vs Racing CF Benidorm — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Castellón II
Castellón II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Racing CF Benidorm
Racing CF Benidorm
12/6/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 14Camp de futbol Javier Marquina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Castellón II45%
×Draw26%
Racing CF Benidorm29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Castellón II
1.44
Racing CF Benidorm
1.11

Castellón II creates 30% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 17 away

creates per match

Castellón II
1.48
Racing CF Benidorm
1.06

allows per match

Castellón II
1.16
Racing CF Benidorm
1.41

finishing

Castellón II+0.00on par
Racing CF Benidorm+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castellón II ↓

Racing CF Benidorm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Castellón II or draw
71%
Castellón II or Racing CF Benidorm
74%
Draw or Racing CF Benidorm
55%

Winning margin

Castellón II wins by 2+
22%
Racing CF Benidorm wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Castellón II 1+ goals
76%
Castellón II 2+ goals
42%
Castellón II 3+ goals
18%
Racing CF Benidorm 1+ goals
67%
Racing CF Benidorm 2+ goals
30%
Racing CF Benidorm 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Castellón II (draw refunded)
60%
Racing CF Benidorm (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castellón II at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.16 · 67 matches

Racing CF Benidorm away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castellón II attack 1.48 + Racing CF Benidorm defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.44

Racing CF Benidorm attack 1.06 + Castellón II defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Castellón II scores more
45%
level
26%
Racing CF Benidorm scores more
29%

Castellón II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Castellón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Castellón II 3 – 1 Racing CF Benidorm

Castellón II beat Racing CF Benidorm 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on December 6, 2024.

The match was played at Camp de futbol Javier Marquina in Castellón de la Plana.