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Rača vs Dubnica — 3. liga - West 2020

Rača
Rača
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dubnica
Dubnica
10/29/20233. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 13Štadión FK Rača

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rača70%
×Draw17%
Dubnica13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rača
2.56
Dubnica
1.01

Rača creates 153% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 15 away

creates per match

Rača
1.78
Dubnica
0.93

allows per match

Rača
1.09
Dubnica
3.33

finishing

Rača+0.00on par
Dubnica+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rača ↓

Dubnica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Rača or draw
87%
Rača or Dubnica
83%
Draw or Dubnica
30%

Winning margin

Rača wins by 2+
48%
Dubnica wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Rača 1+ goals
92%
Rača 2+ goals
72%
Rača 3+ goals
46%
Dubnica 1+ goals
64%
Dubnica 2+ goals
27%
Dubnica 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Rača (draw refunded)
84%
Dubnica (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rača at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.09 · 46 matches

Dubnica away — creates 0.93, concedes 3.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rača attack 1.78 + Dubnica defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.56

Dubnica attack 0.93 + Rača defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Rača scores more
70%
level
17%
Dubnica scores more
13%

Rača at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Rača will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rača 2 – 0 Dubnica

Rača beat Dubnica 2-0 in 3. liga - West on October 29, 2023.

The match was played at Štadión FK Rača in Bratislava.