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Dubnica vs Rača — 2. liga 2019

Dubnica
Dubnica
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Rača
Rača
8/20/20222. liga2. liga · Round 6Mestský futbalový štadión Dubnica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dubnica52%
×Draw23%
Rača25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dubnica
1.82
Rača
1.20

Dubnica creates 52% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 15 away

creates per match

Dubnica
1.44
Rača
1.13

allows per match

Dubnica
1.27
Rača
2.20

finishing

Dubnica+0.00on par
Rača+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dubnica ↓

Rača →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Dubnica or draw
75%
Dubnica or Rača
77%
Draw or Rača
48%

Winning margin

Dubnica wins by 2+
29%
Rača wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dubnica 1+ goals
84%
Dubnica 2+ goals
54%
Dubnica 3+ goals
27%
Rača 1+ goals
70%
Rača 2+ goals
34%
Rača 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Dubnica (draw refunded)
67%
Rača (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dubnica at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.27 · 55 matches

Rača away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dubnica attack 1.44 + Rača defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.82

Rača attack 1.13 + Dubnica defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dubnica scores more
52%
level
23%
Rača scores more
25%

Dubnica at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dubnica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dubnica 1 – 1 Rača

Dubnica and Rača drew 1-1 in 2. liga on August 20, 2022.

The match was played at Mestský futbalový štadión Dubnica in Dubnica nad Váhom.