Rabo Peixe 0–0 Estrela: Result & Stats

Rabo Peixe

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Estrela

1/9/2021

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G · Group G - 11Campo Municipal da Ribeira Grande

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Rabo Peixe20%

×Draw33%

Estrela48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rabo PeixeExpected goals in this matchEstrela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.59

1.09

Rabo Peixe

0.59

Estrela

1.09

Estrela creates 85% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

0.45

creates per match

1.18

1.00

allows per match

0.73

creates per match

Rabo Peixe

0.45

Estrela

1.18

allows per match

Rabo Peixe

1.00

Estrela

0.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rabo Peixe+0.00on par

Estrela+0.00on par

Total goals

Under76
Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rabo Peixe ↓

Estrela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–019%

0–120%

0–211%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–14%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

81%19%1.5

50%50%2.5

24%76%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Rabo Peixe or draw

52%

Rabo Peixe or Estrela

67%

Draw or Estrela

80%

Winning margin

Rabo Peixe wins by 2+

5%

Estrela wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Rabo Peixe 1+ goals

45%

Rabo Peixe 2+ goals

12%

Rabo Peixe 3+ goals

2%

Estrela 1+ goals

66%

Estrela 2+ goals

30%

Estrela 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Rabo Peixe (draw refunded)

29%

Estrela (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rabo Peixe at home — creates 0.45, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Estrela away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rabo Peixe attack 0.45 + Estrela defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.59

Estrela attack 1.18 + Rabo Peixe defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Rabo Peixe scores more

20%

level

33%

Estrela scores more

48%

Estrela at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Estrela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

66'

Luís Mota← Diogo Leitão

66'

Paollo Oliveira← Diego Zaporo

66'

Telmo Watche← R. Murillo

69'

C. Okenwa← Jardel

80'

S. Brou← Rafa Benevides

86'

Chapi Romano← Latón

88'

Diogo Andrade← Valtinha

Rabo

Estrela

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Manuel Matias

69'▲C. Okenwa←▼Jardel

80'▲S. Brou←▼Rafa Benevides

88'▲Diogo Andrade←▼Valtinha

Rabo Peixe substitutes

OkenwaBrouAndrade

Manager: Rui Santos

66'▲Luís Mota←▼Diogo Leitão

66'▲Paollo Oliveira←▼Diego Zaporo

66'▲Telmo Watche←▼R. Murillo

86'▲Chapi Romano←▼Latón

Estrela substitutes

MotaOliveiraWatcheRomano