Estrela 2–1 Rabo Peixe: Result & Stats

Estrela

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Rabo Peixe

C. Nwoga 90+3'

Diogo Leitão 3'

P. Obi 90+4'

4/11/2021

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G · Group G - 22Estádio José Gomes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Estrela58%

×Draw25%

Rabo Peixe17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EstrelaExpected goals in this matchRabo Peixe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.73

Estrela

1.59

Rabo Peixe

0.73

Estrela creates 118% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

1.91

creates per match

1.09

0.36

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Estrela

1.91

Rabo Peixe

1.09

allows per match

Estrela

0.36

Rabo Peixe

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estrela+0.00on par

Rabo Peixe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estrela ↓

Rabo Peixe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Estrela or draw

83%

Estrela or Rabo Peixe

75%

Draw or Rabo Peixe

42%

Winning margin

Estrela wins by 2+

31%

Rabo Peixe wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Estrela 1+ goals

80%

Estrela 2+ goals

47%

Estrela 3+ goals

21%

Rabo Peixe 1+ goals

52%

Rabo Peixe 2+ goals

17%

Rabo Peixe 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Estrela (draw refunded)

77%

Rabo Peixe (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estrela at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.36 · 11 matches

Rabo Peixe away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estrela attack 1.91 + Rabo Peixe defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.59

Rabo Peixe attack 1.09 + Estrela defence 0.36 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Estrela scores more

58%

level

25%

Rabo Peixe scores more

17%

Estrela at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Estrela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

Diogo Leitão

18'

Diogo Andrade← João Flôr

62'

P. Obi← Jardel

65'

Leandro Tipote← Diego Zaporo

73'

Tiago Resendes← P. Ikeocha

76'

C. Nwoga← Paollo Oliveira

76'

Chapi Romano← Xavier Fernandes

88'

Filipe Gaspar← Sérgio Conceição

88'

Luís Mota← Diogo Leitão

90+3'

C. Nwoga

90+4'

P. Obi

Estrela

Rabo

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Leitão

▼

Zaporo

▼

Oliveira

Manager: Rui Santos

65'▲Leandro Tipote←▼Diego Zaporo

76'▲C. Nwoga←▼Paollo Oliveira

76'▲Chapi Romano←▼Xavier Fernandes

88'▲Filipe Gaspar←▼Sérgio Conceição

88'▲Luís Mota←▼Diogo Leitão

Estrela substitutes

TipoteNwogaRomanoGasparMota

Manager: Manuel Matias

18'▲Diogo Andrade←▼João Flôr

62'▲P. Obi←▼Jardel

73'▲Tiago Resendes←▼P. Ikeocha

Rabo Peixe substitutes

AndradeObiResendes