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Quixada vs Guarani De Juazeiro — Cearense - 2 2025

Quixada
Quixada
FT
5 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Guarani De Juazeiro
Guarani De Juazeiro
Unknown 90+6'
D. De Jesus 64'
Indio Potiguar 63'
Gustavo Queiroz 45+5'
Gleryston 36'
Raulisson 90+2', 86'
3/19/2025Cearense - 2Cearense - 2 · 1st Phase - 9Estádio José Antônio Abilio de Lima

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Quixada50%
×Draw23%
Guarani De Juazeiro27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Quixada
1.80
Guarani De Juazeiro
1.25

Quixada creates 44% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

creates per match

Quixada
2.00
Guarani De Juazeiro
1.00

allows per match

Quixada
1.50
Guarani De Juazeiro
1.60

finishing

Quixada+0.00on par
Guarani De Juazeiro+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quixada ↓

Guarani De Juazeiro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Quixada or draw
73%
Quixada or Guarani De Juazeiro
77%
Draw or Guarani De Juazeiro
50%

Winning margin

Quixada wins by 2+
28%
Guarani De Juazeiro wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Quixada 1+ goals
83%
Quixada 2+ goals
54%
Quixada 3+ goals
27%
Guarani De Juazeiro 1+ goals
71%
Guarani De Juazeiro 2+ goals
36%
Guarani De Juazeiro 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Quixada (draw refunded)
65%
Guarani De Juazeiro (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quixada at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Guarani De Juazeiro away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quixada attack 2.00 + Guarani De Juazeiro defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.80

Guarani De Juazeiro attack 1.00 + Quixada defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Quixada scores more
50%
level
23%
Guarani De Juazeiro scores more
27%

Quixada at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Quixada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'
Gleryston
45+5'
Gustavo Queiroz
63'
Indio Potiguar
64'
D. De Jesus
86'
Raulisson
90+2'
Raulisson
90+6'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Quixada 5 – 2 Guarani De Juazeiro

Quixada beat Guarani De Juazeiro 5-2 in Cearense - 2 on March 19, 2025.

Goals: Gleryston (36'), Gustavo Queiroz (45+5'), Indio Potiguar (63'), D. De Jesus (64'), Raulisson (86', 90+2'), ? (90+6').

The match was played at Estádio José Antônio Abilio de Lima in Quixadá, Ceará.