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Guarani De Juazeiro vs Quixada — Cearense - 2 2025

Guarani De Juazeiro
Guarani De Juazeiro
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Quixada
Quixada
Lucas Santos 44', 7'
2/23/2025Cearense - 2Cearense - 2 · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Antônio Lírio Callou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Guarani De Juazeiro37%
×Draw26%
Quixada38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guarani De Juazeiro
1.36
Quixada
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Guarani De Juazeiro
1.13
Quixada
1.40

allows per match

Guarani De Juazeiro
1.38
Quixada
1.60

finishing

Guarani De Juazeiro+0.00on par
Quixada+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarani De Juazeiro ↓

Quixada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Guarani De Juazeiro or draw
62%
Guarani De Juazeiro or Quixada
74%
Draw or Quixada
63%

Winning margin

Guarani De Juazeiro wins by 2+
17%
Quixada wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Guarani De Juazeiro 1+ goals
74%
Guarani De Juazeiro 2+ goals
39%
Guarani De Juazeiro 3+ goals
16%
Quixada 1+ goals
75%
Quixada 2+ goals
40%
Quixada 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Guarani De Juazeiro (draw refunded)
49%
Quixada (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarani De Juazeiro at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Quixada away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarani De Juazeiro attack 1.13 + Quixada defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.36

Quixada attack 1.40 + Guarani De Juazeiro defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Guarani De Juazeiro scores more
37%
level
26%
Quixada scores more
38%

Quixada at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Quixada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
Lucas Santos
44'
Lucas Santos
83'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cearense - 2: Guarani De Juazeiro 0–2 Quixada

Quixada beat Guarani De Juazeiro 2-0 in Cearense - 2 on February 23, 2025.

Goals: Lucas Santos (7', 44').

The match was played at Estádio Antônio Lírio Callou in Barbalha, Ceará.