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Quintanar del Rey vs Huracán Balazote — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Quintanar del Rey
Quintanar del Rey
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Huracán Balazote
Huracán Balazote
1/9/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 19Estadio San Marcos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Quintanar del Rey55%
×Draw26%
Huracán Balazote20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Quintanar del Rey
1.53
Huracán Balazote
0.80

Quintanar del Rey creates 91% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 81 away

creates per match

Quintanar del Rey
1.63
Huracán Balazote
0.95

allows per match

Quintanar del Rey
0.65
Huracán Balazote
1.44

finishing

Quintanar del Rey+0.00on par
Huracán Balazote+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quintanar del Rey ↓

Huracán Balazote →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Quintanar del Rey or draw
80%
Quintanar del Rey or Huracán Balazote
74%
Draw or Huracán Balazote
45%

Winning margin

Quintanar del Rey wins by 2+
28%
Huracán Balazote wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Quintanar del Rey 1+ goals
78%
Quintanar del Rey 2+ goals
45%
Quintanar del Rey 3+ goals
20%
Huracán Balazote 1+ goals
55%
Huracán Balazote 2+ goals
19%
Huracán Balazote 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Quintanar del Rey (draw refunded)
74%
Huracán Balazote (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quintanar del Rey at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.65 · 92 matches

Huracán Balazote away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.44 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quintanar del Rey attack 1.63 + Huracán Balazote defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.53

Huracán Balazote attack 0.95 + Quintanar del Rey defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Quintanar del Rey scores more
55%
level
26%
Huracán Balazote scores more
20%

Quintanar del Rey at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Quintanar del Rey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Quintanar del Rey vs Huracán Balazote

Quintanar del Rey beat Huracán Balazote 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on January 9, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio San Marcos in Quintanar del Rey.