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Huracán Balazote vs Quintanar del Rey — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Huracán Balazote
Huracán Balazote
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Quintanar del Rey
Quintanar del Rey
3/16/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 26Estadio Municipal de Balazote

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Huracán Balazote35%
×Draw28%
Quintanar del Rey37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huracán Balazote
1.17
Quintanar del Rey
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 80 home / 94 away

creates per match

Huracán Balazote
1.40
Quintanar del Rey
1.23

allows per match

Huracán Balazote
1.20
Quintanar del Rey
0.93

finishing

Huracán Balazote+0.00on par
Quintanar del Rey+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huracán Balazote ↓

Quintanar del Rey →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Huracán Balazote or draw
63%
Huracán Balazote or Quintanar del Rey
72%
Draw or Quintanar del Rey
65%

Winning margin

Huracán Balazote wins by 2+
15%
Quintanar del Rey wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Huracán Balazote 1+ goals
69%
Huracán Balazote 2+ goals
33%
Huracán Balazote 3+ goals
11%
Quintanar del Rey 1+ goals
70%
Quintanar del Rey 2+ goals
34%
Quintanar del Rey 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Huracán Balazote (draw refunded)
49%
Quintanar del Rey (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huracán Balazote at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 80 matches

Quintanar del Rey away — creates 1.23, concedes 0.93 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huracán Balazote attack 1.40 + Quintanar del Rey defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.17

Quintanar del Rey attack 1.23 + Huracán Balazote defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Huracán Balazote scores more
35%
level
28%
Quintanar del Rey scores more
37%

Quintanar del Rey at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Quintanar del Rey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Huracán Balazote 0–0 Quintanar del Rey

Huracán Balazote and Quintanar del Rey drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on March 16, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Balazote in Balazote.