Quintanar del Rey 2–0 Calvo Sotelo: Result & Stats

Quintanar del Rey

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Calvo Sotelo

1/12/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 17Estadio San Marcos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Quintanar del Rey49%

×Draw28%

Calvo Sotelo23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quintanar del ReyExpected goals in this matchCalvo Sotelo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.83

Quintanar del Rey

1.36

Calvo Sotelo

0.83

Quintanar del Rey creates 64% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 93 away

1.63

creates per match

1.01

0.65

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Quintanar del Rey

1.63

Calvo Sotelo

1.01

allows per match

Quintanar del Rey

0.65

Calvo Sotelo

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Quintanar del Rey+0.00on par

Calvo Sotelo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quintanar del Rey ↓

Calvo Sotelo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Quintanar del Rey or draw

77%

Quintanar del Rey or Calvo Sotelo

72%

Draw or Calvo Sotelo

51%

Winning margin

Quintanar del Rey wins by 2+

24%

Calvo Sotelo wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Quintanar del Rey 1+ goals

74%

Quintanar del Rey 2+ goals

39%

Quintanar del Rey 3+ goals

16%

Calvo Sotelo 1+ goals

56%

Calvo Sotelo 2+ goals

20%

Calvo Sotelo 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Quintanar del Rey (draw refunded)

68%

Calvo Sotelo (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quintanar del Rey at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.65 · 92 matches

Calvo Sotelo away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.09 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quintanar del Rey attack 1.63 + Calvo Sotelo defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.36

Calvo Sotelo attack 1.01 + Quintanar del Rey defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Quintanar del Rey scores more

49%

level

28%

Calvo Sotelo scores more

23%

Quintanar del Rey at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Quintanar del Rey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff