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Calvo Sotelo vs Quintanar del Rey — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Calvo Sotelo
Calvo Sotelo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Quintanar del Rey
Quintanar del Rey
5/11/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 34Estadio Ciudad de Puertollano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Calvo Sotelo47%
×Draw27%
Quintanar del Rey26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calvo Sotelo
1.38
Quintanar del Rey
0.96

Calvo Sotelo creates 44% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 94 away

creates per match

Calvo Sotelo
1.83
Quintanar del Rey
1.23

allows per match

Calvo Sotelo
0.70
Quintanar del Rey
0.93

finishing

Calvo Sotelo+0.00on par
Quintanar del Rey+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calvo Sotelo ↓

Quintanar del Rey →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Calvo Sotelo or draw
74%
Calvo Sotelo or Quintanar del Rey
73%
Draw or Quintanar del Rey
53%

Winning margin

Calvo Sotelo wins by 2+
22%
Quintanar del Rey wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Calvo Sotelo 1+ goals
75%
Calvo Sotelo 2+ goals
40%
Calvo Sotelo 3+ goals
16%
Quintanar del Rey 1+ goals
62%
Quintanar del Rey 2+ goals
25%
Quintanar del Rey 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Calvo Sotelo (draw refunded)
64%
Quintanar del Rey (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calvo Sotelo at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.70 · 93 matches

Quintanar del Rey away — creates 1.23, concedes 0.93 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calvo Sotelo attack 1.83 + Quintanar del Rey defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.38

Quintanar del Rey attack 1.23 + Calvo Sotelo defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Calvo Sotelo scores more
47%
level
27%
Quintanar del Rey scores more
26%

Calvo Sotelo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Calvo Sotelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Calvo Sotelo vs Quintanar del Rey

Calvo Sotelo beat Quintanar del Rey 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on May 11, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Puertollano in Puertollano.