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Quintanar del Rey vs Azuqueca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Quintanar del Rey
Quintanar del Rey
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Azuqueca
Azuqueca
11/12/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 10Estadio San Marcos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Quintanar del Rey54%
×Draw26%
Azuqueca20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Quintanar del Rey
1.53
Azuqueca
0.82

Quintanar del Rey creates 87% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 112 away

creates per match

Quintanar del Rey
1.63
Azuqueca
0.99

allows per match

Quintanar del Rey
0.65
Azuqueca
1.43

finishing

Quintanar del Rey+0.00on par
Azuqueca+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quintanar del Rey ↓

Azuqueca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Quintanar del Rey or draw
80%
Quintanar del Rey or Azuqueca
74%
Draw or Azuqueca
46%

Winning margin

Quintanar del Rey wins by 2+
28%
Azuqueca wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Quintanar del Rey 1+ goals
78%
Quintanar del Rey 2+ goals
45%
Quintanar del Rey 3+ goals
20%
Azuqueca 1+ goals
56%
Azuqueca 2+ goals
20%
Azuqueca 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Quintanar del Rey (draw refunded)
73%
Azuqueca (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quintanar del Rey at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.65 · 92 matches

Azuqueca away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.43 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quintanar del Rey attack 1.63 + Azuqueca defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.53

Azuqueca attack 0.99 + Quintanar del Rey defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Quintanar del Rey scores more
54%
level
26%
Azuqueca scores more
20%

Quintanar del Rey at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Quintanar del Rey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Quintanar del Rey vs Azuqueca

Quintanar del Rey and Azuqueca drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio San Marcos in Quintanar del Rey.