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Azuqueca vs Quintanar del Rey — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Azuqueca
Azuqueca
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Quintanar del Rey
Quintanar del Rey
3/31/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 27Estadio San Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Azuqueca37%
×Draw27%
Quintanar del Rey36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Azuqueca
1.30
Quintanar del Rey
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 111 home / 94 away

creates per match

Azuqueca
1.67
Quintanar del Rey
1.23

allows per match

Azuqueca
1.31
Quintanar del Rey
0.93

finishing

Azuqueca+0.00on par
Quintanar del Rey+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azuqueca ↓

Quintanar del Rey →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Azuqueca or draw
64%
Azuqueca or Quintanar del Rey
73%
Draw or Quintanar del Rey
63%

Winning margin

Azuqueca wins by 2+
17%
Quintanar del Rey wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Azuqueca 1+ goals
73%
Azuqueca 2+ goals
37%
Azuqueca 3+ goals
14%
Quintanar del Rey 1+ goals
72%
Quintanar del Rey 2+ goals
36%
Quintanar del Rey 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Azuqueca (draw refunded)
51%
Quintanar del Rey (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azuqueca at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.31 · 111 matches

Quintanar del Rey away — creates 1.23, concedes 0.93 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azuqueca attack 1.67 + Quintanar del Rey defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.30

Quintanar del Rey attack 1.23 + Azuqueca defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Azuqueca scores more
37%
level
27%
Quintanar del Rey scores more
36%

Azuqueca at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Azuqueca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Azuqueca vs Quintanar del Rey

Azuqueca and Quintanar del Rey drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on March 31, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio San Miguel in Azuqueca de Henares.