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Quintanar del Rey vs Almansa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Quintanar del Rey
Quintanar del Rey
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Almansa
Almansa
12/12/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 16Estadio San Marcos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Quintanar del Rey57%
×Draw24%
Almansa19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Quintanar del Rey
1.71
Almansa
0.87

Quintanar del Rey creates 97% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 46 away

creates per match

Quintanar del Rey
1.63
Almansa
1.09

allows per match

Quintanar del Rey
0.65
Almansa
1.80

finishing

Quintanar del Rey+0.00on par
Almansa+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quintanar del Rey ↓

Almansa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Quintanar del Rey or draw
81%
Quintanar del Rey or Almansa
76%
Draw or Almansa
43%

Winning margin

Quintanar del Rey wins by 2+
32%
Almansa wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Quintanar del Rey 1+ goals
82%
Quintanar del Rey 2+ goals
51%
Quintanar del Rey 3+ goals
24%
Almansa 1+ goals
58%
Almansa 2+ goals
22%
Almansa 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Quintanar del Rey (draw refunded)
75%
Almansa (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quintanar del Rey at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.65 · 92 matches

Almansa away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.80 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quintanar del Rey attack 1.63 + Almansa defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.71

Almansa attack 1.09 + Quintanar del Rey defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Quintanar del Rey scores more
57%
level
24%
Almansa scores more
19%

Quintanar del Rey at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Quintanar del Rey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Quintanar del Rey 3–0 Almansa

Quintanar del Rey beat Almansa 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on December 12, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio San Marcos in Quintanar del Rey.