Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Almansa vs Quintanar del Rey — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Almansa
Almansa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Quintanar del Rey
Quintanar del Rey
4/24/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 33Polideportivo Municipal Paco Simón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Almansa29%
×Draw27%
Quintanar del Rey44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almansa
1.05
Quintanar del Rey
1.38

Quintanar del Rey creates 31% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 94 away

creates per match

Almansa
1.18
Quintanar del Rey
1.23

allows per match

Almansa
1.52
Quintanar del Rey
0.93

finishing

Almansa+0.00on par
Quintanar del Rey+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almansa ↓

Quintanar del Rey →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Almansa or draw
56%
Almansa or Quintanar del Rey
73%
Draw or Quintanar del Rey
71%

Winning margin

Almansa wins by 2+
11%
Quintanar del Rey wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Almansa 1+ goals
65%
Almansa 2+ goals
28%
Almansa 3+ goals
9%
Quintanar del Rey 1+ goals
75%
Quintanar del Rey 2+ goals
40%
Quintanar del Rey 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Almansa (draw refunded)
39%
Quintanar del Rey (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almansa at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.52 · 44 matches

Quintanar del Rey away — creates 1.23, concedes 0.93 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almansa attack 1.18 + Quintanar del Rey defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.05

Quintanar del Rey attack 1.23 + Almansa defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Almansa scores more
29%
level
27%
Quintanar del Rey scores more
44%

Quintanar del Rey at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Quintanar del Rey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Almansa 1 – 1 Quintanar del Rey

Almansa and Quintanar del Rey drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on April 24, 2022.

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal Paco Simón in Almansa.