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Bravos do Maquis FC vs Porcelana — Girabola 2013

Bravos do Maquis FC
Bravos do Maquis FC
FT
4 – 0
Porcelana
Porcelana
9/11/2013GirabolaGirabola · Round 22Estádio das Mangueiras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Bravos do Maquis FC65%
×Draw23%
Porcelana11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bravos do Maquis FC
1.66
Porcelana
0.52

Bravos do Maquis FC creates 219% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 4 away

creates per match

Bravos do Maquis FC
1.32
Porcelana
0.25

allows per match

Bravos do Maquis FC
0.78
Porcelana
2.00

finishing

Bravos do Maquis FC+0.00on par
Porcelana+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bravos do Maquis FC ↓

Porcelana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–110%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Bravos do Maquis FC or draw
89%
Bravos do Maquis FC or Porcelana
77%
Draw or Porcelana
35%

Winning margin

Bravos do Maquis FC wins by 2+
37%
Porcelana wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Bravos do Maquis FC 1+ goals
81%
Bravos do Maquis FC 2+ goals
49%
Bravos do Maquis FC 3+ goals
23%
Porcelana 1+ goals
41%
Porcelana 2+ goals
10%
Porcelana 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Bravos do Maquis FC (draw refunded)
85%
Porcelana (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bravos do Maquis FC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.78 · 114 matches

Porcelana away — creates 0.25, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bravos do Maquis FC attack 1.32 + Porcelana defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.66

Porcelana attack 0.25 + Bravos do Maquis FC defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Bravos do Maquis FC scores more
65%
level
23%
Porcelana scores more
11%

Bravos do Maquis FC at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Bravos do Maquis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Bravos do Maquis FC 4–0 Porcelana

Bravos do Maquis FC beat Porcelana 4-0 in Girabola on September 11, 2013.

The match was played at Estádio das Mangueiras.