Porcelana 0–2 Bravos do Maquis FC: Result & Stats

Porcelana

FT

0 – 2

Bravos do Maquis FC

4/13/2013

Girabola · Round 7Estádio Santos Dinizes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Porcelana26%

×Draw30%

Bravos do Maquis FC44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PorcelanaExpected goals in this matchBravos do Maquis FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.85

1.18

Porcelana

0.85

Bravos do Maquis FC

1.18

Bravos do Maquis FC creates 39% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 114 away

0.60

creates per match

0.96

1.40

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Porcelana

0.60

Bravos do Maquis FC

0.96

allows per match

Porcelana

1.40

Bravos do Maquis FC

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Porcelana+0.00on par

Bravos do Maquis FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Porcelana ↓

Bravos do Maquis FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–116%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Porcelana or draw

56%

Porcelana or Bravos do Maquis FC

70%

Draw or Bravos do Maquis FC

74%

Winning margin

Porcelana wins by 2+

9%

Bravos do Maquis FC wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Porcelana 1+ goals

57%

Porcelana 2+ goals

21%

Porcelana 3+ goals

5%

Bravos do Maquis FC 1+ goals

69%

Bravos do Maquis FC 2+ goals

33%

Bravos do Maquis FC 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Porcelana (draw refunded)

38%

Bravos do Maquis FC (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Porcelana at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Bravos do Maquis FC away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.11 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Porcelana attack 0.60 + Bravos do Maquis FC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.85

Bravos do Maquis FC attack 0.96 + Porcelana defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Porcelana scores more

26%

level

30%

Bravos do Maquis FC scores more

44%

Bravos do Maquis FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bravos do Maquis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff