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Quilmes vs Chacarita Juniors — Primera Nacional 2026

Quilmes
Quilmes
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chacarita Juniors
Chacarita Juniors
2/26/2024Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 4Estadio Centenario Ciudad de Quilmes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 123+ matches

Quilmes45%
×Draw29%
Chacarita Juniors26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Quilmes
1.26
Chacarita Juniors
0.88

Quilmes creates 43% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 123 away

creates per match

Quilmes
1.33
Chacarita Juniors
0.92

allows per match

Quilmes
0.83
Chacarita Juniors
1.19

finishing

Quilmes+0.00on par
Chacarita Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quilmes ↓

Chacarita Juniors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Quilmes or draw
74%
Quilmes or Chacarita Juniors
71%
Draw or Chacarita Juniors
55%

Winning margin

Quilmes wins by 2+
20%
Chacarita Juniors wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Quilmes 1+ goals
72%
Quilmes 2+ goals
36%
Quilmes 3+ goals
13%
Chacarita Juniors 1+ goals
59%
Chacarita Juniors 2+ goals
22%
Chacarita Juniors 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Quilmes (draw refunded)
64%
Chacarita Juniors (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quilmes at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.83 · 126 matches

Chacarita Juniors away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.19 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quilmes attack 1.33 + Chacarita Juniors defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.26

Chacarita Juniors attack 0.92 + Quilmes defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Quilmes scores more
45%
level
29%
Chacarita Juniors scores more
26%

Quilmes at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Quilmes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Nacional: Quilmes 1–0 Chacarita Juniors

Quilmes beat Chacarita Juniors 1-0 in Primera Nacional on February 26, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Centenario Ciudad de Quilmes in Quilmes, Provincia de Buenos Aires.