Chacarita Juniors 0–4 Quilmes: Result & Stats

Chacarita Juniors

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Quilmes

7/13/2024

Primera Nacional · Round 23Estadio de Chacarita Juniors

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 124+ matches

Chacarita Juniors38%

×Draw30%

Quilmes32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chacarita JuniorsExpected goals in this matchQuilmes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

0.97

Chacarita Juniors

1.09

Quilmes

0.97

Chacarita Juniors creates 12% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 129 away

1.12

creates per match

0.88

1.06

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Chacarita Juniors

1.12

Quilmes

0.88

allows per match

Chacarita Juniors

1.06

Quilmes

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chacarita Juniors+0.00on par

Quilmes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chacarita Juniors ↓

Quilmes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Chacarita Juniors or draw

68%

Chacarita Juniors or Quilmes

70%

Draw or Quilmes

62%

Winning margin

Chacarita Juniors wins by 2+

15%

Quilmes wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Chacarita Juniors 1+ goals

66%

Chacarita Juniors 2+ goals

30%

Chacarita Juniors 3+ goals

10%

Quilmes 1+ goals

62%

Quilmes 2+ goals

25%

Quilmes 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Chacarita Juniors (draw refunded)

54%

Quilmes (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chacarita Juniors at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.06 · 124 matches

Quilmes away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.06 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chacarita Juniors attack 1.12 + Quilmes defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.09

Quilmes attack 0.88 + Chacarita Juniors defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chacarita Juniors scores more

38%

level

30%

Quilmes scores more

32%

Chacarita Juniors at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Chacarita Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff