Quilmes 3–1 Arsenal Sarandi: Result & Stats

Quilmes

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Arsenal Sarandi

7/19/2025

Primera Nacional · Round 23Estadio Centenario Ciudad de Quilmes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Quilmes51%

×Draw28%

Arsenal Sarandi21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

QuilmesExpected goals in this matchArsenal Sarandi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.77

Quilmes

1.36

Arsenal Sarandi

0.77

Quilmes creates 77% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 49 away

1.33

creates per match

0.71

0.83

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Quilmes

1.33

Arsenal Sarandi

0.71

allows per match

Quilmes

0.83

Arsenal Sarandi

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Quilmes+0.00on par

Arsenal Sarandi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quilmes ↓

Arsenal Sarandi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Quilmes or draw

79%

Quilmes or Arsenal Sarandi

72%

Draw or Arsenal Sarandi

49%

Winning margin

Quilmes wins by 2+

25%

Arsenal Sarandi wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Quilmes 1+ goals

74%

Quilmes 2+ goals

39%

Quilmes 3+ goals

16%

Arsenal Sarandi 1+ goals

54%

Arsenal Sarandi 2+ goals

18%

Arsenal Sarandi 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Quilmes (draw refunded)

71%

Arsenal Sarandi (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quilmes at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.83 · 126 matches

Arsenal Sarandi away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.39 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quilmes attack 1.33 + Arsenal Sarandi defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.36

Arsenal Sarandi attack 0.71 + Quilmes defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Quilmes scores more

51%

level

28%

Arsenal Sarandi scores more

21%

Quilmes at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Quilmes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff