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Arsenal Sarandi vs Quilmes — Primera Nacional 2026

Arsenal Sarandi
Arsenal Sarandi
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Quilmes
Quilmes
7/27/2024Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 25Estadio Julio Humberto Grondona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Arsenal Sarandi45%
×Draw30%
Quilmes25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arsenal Sarandi
1.17
Quilmes
0.79

Arsenal Sarandi creates 48% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 129 away

creates per match

Arsenal Sarandi
1.27
Quilmes
0.88

allows per match

Arsenal Sarandi
0.71
Quilmes
1.06

finishing

Arsenal Sarandi+0.00on par
Quilmes+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Sarandi ↓

Quilmes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Arsenal Sarandi or draw
75%
Arsenal Sarandi or Quilmes
70%
Draw or Quilmes
55%

Winning margin

Arsenal Sarandi wins by 2+
19%
Quilmes wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Arsenal Sarandi 1+ goals
69%
Arsenal Sarandi 2+ goals
33%
Arsenal Sarandi 3+ goals
11%
Quilmes 1+ goals
55%
Quilmes 2+ goals
19%
Quilmes 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Sarandi (draw refunded)
64%
Quilmes (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Sarandi at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.71 · 48 matches

Quilmes away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.06 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Sarandi attack 1.27 + Quilmes defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.17

Quilmes attack 0.88 + Arsenal Sarandi defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Arsenal Sarandi scores more
45%
level
30%
Quilmes scores more
25%

Arsenal Sarandi at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Arsenal Sarandi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arsenal Sarandi vs Quilmes

Arsenal Sarandi and Quilmes drew 0-0 in Primera Nacional on July 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Julio Humberto Grondona in Avellaneda, Provincia de Buenos Aires.